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MNI BoJ Preview - April 2024: ‘Wait And See’ Approach, Alert To Messaging On JGB Purchases & Currency Weakness

At this week’s meeting, we expect the BoJ to maintain its target range for the uncollateralized overnight call rate at 0-0.1%.

LATEST INSIGHT

MNI BRIEF: Aussie CPI Higher Than Expected At 3.6% Y/Y

Australian CPI over Q1 grew 3.6%, higher than the market's expectation.

MNI INTERVIEW:Tough For BOE To Agree Scenarios-NIESR's Millard

NIESR'S Deputy Director Stephen Millard tells MNI that getting the BOE to agree on scenarios in line with the Bernanke Review will be tricky.

Political Risk

Congressional Preference Stable Despite Swinging Presidential Race

A new survey from NBC News has found that the generic Congressional ballot - a polling metric which asks voters whether they would prefer an unnamed Republican or Democrat in Congress - has been remarkably stable for over two years, despite preferences shifting more dramatically at the top of the ticket.

  • NBC: "Right now, 47% prefer a GOP-controlled Congress compared to 46% who want Democrats. The parties have been locked in that competitive position for years: The GOP number hasn’t moved more than 2 points in either direction in NBC News polling since August 2021, while the Democratic number dipped outside that range just once."
  • 538 notes a similarly tight race, with Democrats slightly ahead, on their generic congressional ballot aggregator: Democrats 44.7% Republicans 44.3%.
  • Real Clear Politics' trackershows a dead heat - 45.5% apiece.

Figure 1: "What is your preference for the outcome of the congressional elections?"

Source: NBC News

Apartment List Economist On Rent Outlook

MNI interviews economist at rental listing firm on outlook for shelter inflation -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

Senate To Vote On USD$95b Foreign Aid Package Shortly

The Senate is shortly due to hold two roll call votes on the House-passed USD$95 billion foreign aid package. Passage is all but assured, possibly by this afternoon or Wednesday evening, at the latest.

  • Punchbowl News reports: “Of course, the Senate being the Senate, it’s unclear when exactly the bill will pass. But with each senator limited to just one hour of remarks after today’s procedural votes, it’s likely that those who oppose the measure won’t be able to drag this out much later than tonight.”
  • Politico notes that Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY), “will almost certainly have to come up with an amendment deal to move the legislation more quickly. Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), for example, wants to put conditions on Israel aid and restore funding to UNRWA. And Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) [looking to kill the legislation] wants a vote on requiring Ukraine to pay back aid to the United States."
  • President Biden spoke yesterday with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to assure the Ukrainian leader that the White House, “will quickly provide significant new security assistance packages to meet Ukraine’s urgent battlefield and air defense needs as soon as the Senate passes the national security supplemental and he signs it into law.”
  • Politico reports that the Biden administration, “is preparing to send a larger-than-normal military aid package to Ukraine that will include armored vehicles, in addition to artillery and air defenses. Defense officials want it to be ready to go once Biden signs off [on the supplemental].”

Biden To Target Reproductive Rights In Florida Speech

President Biden will travel to Tampa, Florida this evening to deliver a speech on women’s reproductive rights – a bid to keep one of Biden’s primary political strengths in the spotlight in a state which Democrats hope to make competitive in November.

  • Semafor notes: “The visit, timed eight days before Florida’s 6-week ban on the procedure snaps into effect, will let the president “forcefully advocate for reproductive freedom and call out Donald Trump’s abortion bans,” campaign communications director Michael Tyler said on a press call.”
  • AP notes: “Biden is seeking to capitalize on the unceasing momentum against abortion restrictions nationwide to not only buoy his reelection bid in battleground states he won in 2020, but also to go on the offensive against Donald Trump in states that the presumptive Republican nominee won four years ago. One of those states is Florida, where Biden lost by 3.3 percentage points to Trump.”
  • Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler told reporters yesterday: “We take Florida very seriously. The idea that Donald Trump has the state in the bag could not be further from the truth. He owns not only the state of abortion rights across the country, but he owns the restriction that we’re seeing play out in Florida. So, yes, that means there’s an opportunity for us.”

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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

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