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EGB/Bund - A very volatile session

BONDS
  • A very volatile session for EGBs and Bund, with future initially rallying on our MNI source ECB story
  • MNI's ECB sources article published this morning, regarding the part of the article that has received the most attention:
  • what MNI reported was that one Eurosystem source said he thought it was likely that Lagarde would opt for a 50bp hike at the September meeting.
  • The story contains multiple sources and as a whole is more nuanced, as can be inferred from the headline, "MNI SOURCES: Both 75, 50BP Still In Play As ECB Readies Hike."
  • EGBs and Bund have since reversed, and trade deep in the red, and a 239 ticks for Bund today.
  • Peripheral spreads are all tighter, with Greece in the lead by 13.5bps, but the spread remains with the September range
  • Gilt underperforms the most, and Gilt/Bund spread is now widest since April 2015.
  • Next upside resistance will be seen at the psychological 150.00bps.
  • Above the latter sees 154.72, the April 2015 peak.
  • Gilt/Bund spread trades at 148.4bps.
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