###(1/2) Most banks expect ECB to hint.....>

ECB VIEW: ###(1/2) Most banks expect ECB to hint at QE tapper but wait for Oct

for announcement. RBC and Soc Gen though see decision tomorrow. Bank views:

- Goldmans: Expect ECB to leave policy rates unchanged and do not expect

announcement of formal changes to its APP programme. Draghi to signal APP will

be tapered in 2018 and make general comments on strength of Euro.

- RBC: Expect ECB to announce changes to its QE programme, reducing size to

E40bln per month from E60bln and move to gross purchase target. But likely be a

dovish message to keep QE open-ended and re-inforce current forward guidance

- Commerzbank: Draghi likely to hint at a reduction of QE in 2018 to E40bln, but

concrete details unlikely until Oct. ECB looks set to stress flexibility and

leave the QE path left open.

- Barclays: ECB likely to prepare markets for announcement on extension of QE in

Oct, likely at E35-E40bln for H1 2018, followed by E15-E20bln for H2. Expect

growth to be revised slightly up, while core inflation revised down.

- BAML: ECB to wait until Oct meeting to announce QE extension for 6-months at

E40bln p/m. EUR appreciation could see CPI forecast cut for 2018 but not 2019