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1.22 Unlikely to Provide Consequential Support

GBP
  • GBP/USD edging slowly to new lows headed into the NY crossover, with the 1.2200 handle unlikely to provide significant support ahead of 1.2185, a break of which would reverse the rally triggered by Friday's softer NFP.
  • Today's modest weakness still marks four consecutive sessions of lower lows, and will return focus to 1.2070 in the coming weeks and 1.2037 further out. Break below here would end the October phase of consolidation and resume the broader downtrend drawn off the July high.
  • The pair failed in this week's test of the 200-dma resistance at 1.2435, with moving average studies also pointed lower: the 50-dma formed a death cross on Oct17, after which intraday rallies have tended to be sold.
  • Focus turns to the sequence of Fed speakers today (Logan, Bostic, Daly) and the prelim UMich sentiment release.
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