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1 Month Finds Selling Interest Above 1330, But Won Down 1% Last Week

KRW

1 month USD/KRW found selling interest above 1330 on Friday, before closing in NY trade at 1328.7. This was a won loss of 0.50% for Friday's session, to be down around 1% for last week in total. Note onshore spot ended Friday's session at 1329.9. We are a little higher in earlier dealings today, last near 1322.

  • In terms of levels earlier Mar and late Feb highs around 1335.5 remain intact for the 1 month NDF. We have the 20 and 50-day EMAs both near 1324 on the downside.
  • Broader equity sentiment was weaker through Friday, while last week tech indices in terms of the SOX (-4.04%) and MSCI IT (-1.09%) were down. The rebound in US real yields (10yr back to 1.99%) has weighed on sentiment in this space and aided broader USD gains. Signs of sticky inflation pressures from data last week has dented Fed easing expectations.
  • These have been headwinds for KRW, while the sharp USD/JPY rebound has also likely been a factor.
  • To recap, onshore equities finished poorly last week, down 1.91%, with some disappointment around the 'value up' program post the Samsung C&T annual meeting. Offshore investors sold $771.1mn of local shares last week.
  • This morning we have had a likely ballistic missile test from North Korea. This appears to be coinciding with US Secretary of State Blinken meeting with South Korean Foreign Minister Cho in Seoul today.

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