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10-year Spreads Wider Today, But Tightening Theme Since July Still Intact

EGBS

10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds have widened this morning, alongside the near-1% pullback in European equity futures. However, today’s moves do not detract from the overall tightening theme seen through July.

  • Spreads have tightened fairly aggressively since the French legislative election results on 30 June and 7 July.
  • The 10-year BTP/Bund spread has compressed around 25bps through July, with GGBs (20bps), SPGBs (10bps) and PGBs (10bps) following suit.
  • Although European equities also found some relief following the French elections, the increased odds of a Trump Presidency (and the associated risks of increased US protectionism) have weighed this week (while the 10-year BTP/Bund spread has generally continued to narrow).
  • It seems unlikely that the BTP/Bund spread will be able to meaningfully challenge year-to-date tightest closing levels (around 120bps) over the next few months though, given expectations for a cautious ECB easing cycle and still-present domestic fiscal concerns.

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