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10Y Yield Hovers Near 4% Ahead Key December Employment Data

US TSYS
  • Treasury futures still weaker, holding narrow range near lows since this morning as markets await Friday's headline employment data. Tsy futures extended lows after this morning's higher than expected ADP Employment Change data (164k vs 125k est), and again after lower than expected Initial Jobless Claims (202k vs. 216k est) and Continuing Claims (1.855M vs 1.881M est).
  • Treasury 10Y futures tested initial technical support, TYH4 tapped 111-27.5 low (-21), 112-00 last, 10Y yield did briefly top 4% in the second half is currently at 3.9931%.
  • Bloomberg consensus sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 175k in December after November’s 199k was boosted by 38k workers returning from strikes. The public sector is expected to see further above-average job creation with private sector focus on health & social assistance as well as retail.
  • Both AHE and the unemployment rate are seen marginally dovish vs November, but exaggerated by rounding and with primary dealer analysts tilted to a small hawkish surprise across both categories.
  • Projected rate cuts for early 2024 continue to cool after surging higher post Dec'23 FOMC: January 2024 cumulative -1.6bp at 5.313%, March 2024 chance of rate cut -63% vs. 66.8% this morning (-84.3% last Friday) w/ cumulative of -17.4bp at 5.155%, May 2024 chance of cut -83.7% vs. -86% this morning, cumulative -38.3bp at 4.946%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Jan'24.
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