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1Y Inflation Expectations Lowest Since Apr’21 – NY Fed

US DATA
  • The NY Fed survey of consumer expectations for July supports the moderation for near-term expectations in the separate U.Mich survey.
  • 1Y median: 3.55% from 3.83%, lowest since Apr’21
  • 3Y median: 2.91% from 2.95%, only lowest since Apr’23
  • 5Y median: 2.9% from 3.0% median, only lowest since May’23
  • Behind the drop in the 1Y were year-ahead price growth expectations for food, medical care and rent declining to their lowest levels in nearly three years.
  • It follows sharp moderation in the U.Mich 1Y component to 3.3-3.4% in recent months and the 5-10Y still rangebound at 2.9% in the preliminary Aug release but down from May’s 3.1%.

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