(2/3) BMO Capital Markets: With.....>

US DATA PREVIEW: (2/3) BMO Capital Markets: With core forecast to remain at 2%

or over for the 15th straight month, a confirmation in this direction could take

incremental pressure off of calls for a June (or July) rate cut. 0.2% MoM core

survey consensus should come as no surprise at this point, given every CPI

release has shared this assumption going in since October 2015. In addition, the

CPI impulse into breakevens comes at a highly pivotal moment in the cycle - if

inflation compensation remains this subdued, easing naturally follows.

- Citi: After the misses in payrolls and ISM, risks are to the downside.

- Commerz: 0.2% is a solid base case while our economists see better chances for

a lower than for a higher print.

- Morgan Stanley: We expect a slight rebound in core goods in May (+0.05%M),

which should come alongside another robust reading in core services (+0.27%M

after +0.29%M in April). The combination likely moves up May core CPI by 0.21%M,

which should hold the year-over-year rate at 2.1%Y.

- NatWest: Expect headline of 0.1% (following three consecutive firm gains)

(1.8% Y/y), while core is projected to have edged up by 0.2% (2.0% Y/Y).