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GERMANY
The German traffic light coalition has agreed the details of the 2025 budget and the 2024 supplementary budget, finance minister Lindner officially confirmed in a press conference.
- As reported, there remain some questions around the budgets as the finance ministry plans to close large parts of the funding gaps for 2024 (which arose on the back of overall weak economic conditions) and 2025 (amid multiple ministries keeping up their higher-than-expected expenditure requests) through a mixture of unconventional accounting measures as well as optimistic growth and revenue assumptions.
- Lindner addressed these questions in the press conference and mentioned that some of the accounting measures are currently being reviewed by a legal expert in terms of their reconcilability with the constitutional debt brake. The coalition remains prepared for further adjustments in case the debt brake rules prohibit applying these measures.
- Apart from that, some analysis seen on X (Bastian Brinkmann / Klaus Seipp) suggests some of the mentioned assumptions are indeed highly optimistic - suggesting some upside risks to the net issuance plans in 2025.
- Net debt issuance is planned to decline going forward, but from a higher starting point: Projections are E50.3bln in 2024 (E11.3bln higher than initially planned), E43.8bln (2025), E38.6bln (2026), E34.4bln (2027), E29.9bln (2028).
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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