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2024 Fed Implied Rates Push Further Below Post-Payrolls Levels

STIR
  • Fed Funds implied rates have pushed lower overnight on souring risk sentiment on drivers including Moody's cutting ratings on the US banking sector, some soft Chinese data and most recently UPS missing EPS expectations and cutting its full-year revenue outlook.
  • The move sees near-term meetings back at the lower end of recent ranges (+3bp for Sep, cumulative +8bp for Nov) whilst 2024 rates push further below Friday’s post-payrolls close having drawn back level in the second-half of yesterday’s session.
  • Cuts from Nov terminal: 4bp to Dec’23 (from 3bp yesterday), 69bp to Jun’24 (from 66bp) and 145bp to Dec’24 (from 142bp).
  • Harker (’23 voter) speaks with text at 0815ET and Barkin (’24) at 0830ET, both for the first time since last month’s FOMC in an otherwise relatively light session. However, the nature of enhanced data dependency sees Thursday’s CPI report more heavily in focus.

Source: Bloomberg

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