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2024 Rate Cut Expectations Trimmed

US TSYS

TYH4 deals at 110-12, +0-06, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 2-10bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear flattened.
  • Tsys trimmed a portion of Friday's gains as 2024 rate cut expectations were wound back, position squaring ahead of Friday's NFP print also weighed.
  • FOMC dated OIS now price a terminal rate of 5.35% in Dec 24 with ~110bps of cuts by Nov 24.
  • A softer than forecast Factory Orders saw Tsys briefly pare losses early in the NY session.
  • In Asia today the latest monetary policy decision from the RBA headlines, there is no change to policy expected. Further out we have ISM Services and JOLTS Job Openings.

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