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2s10s Close To YtD Lows Ahead Of Jobless Claims and Heavy Bill Issuance

US TSYS
  • Treasuries trade cheaper today with cash markets catching up on yesterday’s full closure for the Juneteenth holiday and futures after an early close.
  • There is also some potential spillover from heavy EGB supply this morning with EGB yields pushing higher on the day.
  • Cash yields sit 2.5-3bp higher, with 2s10s of -48bps only a little above Tuesday’s fresh YtD low of -49.5bps.
  • TYU4 has pushed lower to 110-17 (-4+ ticks from the early close and -8+ from Tuesday’s full close) with elevated volumes of 465k.
  • Support is seen at 109-21+ (50-day EMA) but the technical backdrop points to a bullish theme with resistance at 111-01 (Jun 14 high).
  • The BoE decision at 0700ET offers some potential spillover risk before attention returns to US factors.
  • Data: Jobless claims including payrolls reference period for initial (0830ET), Building permits/Housing starts May (0830ET), Current account Q1 (0830ET), Philly Fed mfg index Jun (0830ET)
  • Fedspeak: Kashkari (0845ET), Barkin (1600ET), Daly (2215ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Note/bond issuance: US Tsy $21B 5Y TIPS reopen (1300ET)
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B each 4- and 8W bill auctions (1130ET), $60B 17W bill auctions (1300ET)

US 2s10sSource: Bloomberg

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