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2Y Yields Briefly Above 4% On Only Mild Delinquency Increase

US TSYS
  • 2Y Tsy yields have seen a brief push above 4% after two failed attempts earlier today, touching 4.0225% but already back below 4.00% again.
  • The NY Fed’s household debt report likely helped the initial price action, with only a marginal lift in transition to delinquency rates in Q2 rather than anything more alarming, although a psychological 4% handle is providing firm resistance.
  • Friday’s payrolls report of course still casts a shadow, with 2YY at ~4.12% prior to the report, but they're off yesterday's 3.65% low.
  • Ahead, the $58bn 3Y auction offers a litmus test for demand at the front end of the curve amidst high volatility of the past two sessions.
  • The 3Y WI is currently 3.790%, some 60bps below the 4.399% high yield from the July 3Y auction which helped see a strong bid-to-cover of 2.67x (joint highest since Jan).
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