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30Y Yield Topped 5% Briefly

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys running mostly weaker, off overnight lows after 30Y yield topped 5% for first time since late 2007 briefly (5.009%), wings flirting with steady to mildly higher. Tsy 10Y yields have been marking higher highs for weeks, tapped 4.8799% high around the London crossover, curves steeper but off highs: 3M10Y currently 69.445 (+2.464) vs. -62.860 high, 2Y10Y -32.945 (+2.947) vs. -29.979 high.
  • Heavy overnight futures volume (TYZ3 >565k) as 10Y contract fell to a fresh cycle low of 106-03.5, currently trades 106-15 (-5.5). Bear trend remains intact, initial technical support at 106-00 followed by 105-27.5 (3% lower Bollinger Band).
  • Economic data picks up in earnest with ADP Private Employment at 0815ET, S&P Services/Composite PMIs at 0945, followed by ISM services and durables/cap goods orders at 1000ET. Treasury auctions $4B 17W bills at 1130ET.
  • Fed speakers Gov Bowman at a community bank conference (10.25ET) and Chicago Fed Goolsbee open remarks at a bank conf (1030ET) followed by a moderated discussion with former Bank of India Gov Rajan at 1500ET.
  • Rate hike projections moderate into early 2024: November 30.5% w/ implied rate change of +7.6bp to 5.405%. Projections ease slightly for next two meetings: December cumulative of 12.5bp at 5.452%, January 2024 11.9bp at 5.448%. Fed terminal at 5.455% in Jan'24.
  • Headline watching: aftermath of House Speaker McCarthy ousting late Tuesday and who will fill the void (front runners Scalise and Jordan).
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