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42bp Of BoE Cuts Priced Through Year End, PMIs Eyed

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SONIA markets little changed after yesterday’s modest U.S.-driven dovish adjustments.

  • Futures -1.0 to +1.5, while BoE-dated OIS shows 6bp of cuts for Sep and 42bp of cuts through year end.
  • Flash PMIs due today, post-election bounce in sentiment to be reassessed.
  • Firmer labour market & inflation components could reduce pricing of further BoE easing through year end.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.890-6.0
Nov-244.670-28.0
Dec-244.529-42.1
Feb-254.334-61.6
Mar-254.184-76.6
May-254.019-93.2
Jun-253.925-102.5
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SONIA markets little changed after yesterday’s modest U.S.-driven dovish adjustments.

  • Futures -1.0 to +1.5, while BoE-dated OIS shows 6bp of cuts for Sep and 42bp of cuts through year end.
  • Flash PMIs due today, post-election bounce in sentiment to be reassessed.
  • Firmer labour market & inflation components could reduce pricing of further BoE easing through year end.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.890-6.0
Nov-244.670-28.0
Dec-244.529-42.1
Feb-254.334-61.6
Mar-254.184-76.6
May-254.019-93.2
Jun-253.925-102.5