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50bp Feb Hikes Largely Priced For BoE/ECB Pre-Payrolls

STIR

Quick check on ECB/BoE pricing pre-US payrolls and post-EZ inflation: ECB terminal rates are seen peaking after 149bp of further hikes to a depo rate just under 3.50% by July (in line with Villeroy's comments this morning about concluding the hike cycle by summer).

  • That's up a couple of bp today and about 8bp from Wednesday's close. A 50bp hike in Feb is seen with 94% probability; just under 93bp is seen cumulatively through the Mar 16th decision.
BoE hike pricing sees a further 123bp in hikes by September (implying a 4.73% Bank rate).
  • That's up 4bp today and 10bp from Wednesday's close. Around 80% probability of a 50bp Feb hike is implied; 78bp is priced through the Mar 23rd MPC.
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