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5Y CDS Surges To Highest Level since May 2020

CHINA
  • Even though some investors are confident that Evergrande's collapse does not represent an imminent threat to the global high-yield market, the significant deceleration in Chinese economic activity could continue to weigh on risky assets.
  • We previously argued that what matters for China and for the global economy is the dynamics of the property market (60tr USD in total value, by far the world's largest asset class).
  • A sharp deceleration in China real estate market will mostly likely have a dramatic impact on the domestic economic activity and therefore to international risky assets.
  • The chart below shows that the cost of insurance against a default in China's USD debt continues to rise, is up by 25bps and is currently trading at 56bps, its highest level since May 2020.
  • Is the cost of insurance expected to reach new highs as the crackdown on a diversity of sectors continues ?

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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