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A 50bps Hike Is Now Priced In For Next CNB Meeting (Sep 30)

CZECHIA
  • Forward rates keep rising following recent policymakers 'hawkish' tone, with the FRA 3Mx6M and the 4Mx7M currently trading 89bps and 115bps above the Pribor 3M.
  • CNB Governor Rusnok recently said that he 'cannot rule out' a bigger than 25bps hike in the coming meeting if the central bank's new inflation forecast indicates that such move is needed.
  • This week, CNB board Benda member also confirmed that the CNB should accelerate its monetary policy tightening campaign as the central bank should prevent the significant rise in CPI inflation from increasing LT inflation expectations.
  • Hence, odds for a 50bps hike at the next CNB meeting (September 30) have been surging following the positive surprise in inflation last week (CPI inflation rose to 4.1% in August vs. 3.6% expected).
  • USDCZK ticks lower this morning after failing to break through its 200DMA several times in the past few days; support to watch on the downside stands at 21.38 (100DMA), followed by 21.20. On the topside, next resistance to watch above 21.51 (200DMA) stands at 21.61 (50DMA).
  • Czech 10Y yield has been trending higher in the past week, gradually approaching its key resistance at 2%; next level to watch above that stands at 2.20%. On the downside, first support stands at 1.80%, followed by 1.75% (50DMA).
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