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A 50bps Hike is Now Very Likely for the September 30 Meeting

CZECHIA
LOCAL NEWS
  • Today, lawmakers are expected to debate a proposal to accept antibodies acquired after recovering from Covid-19 as the same proof of immunity as vaccination (BBG).
  • Yesterday, economic data showed that Czech PPI inflation rose by 9.3% YoY in August (vs. 8.7% exp.), up from 7.8% the previous month.
  • A 50bps hike is now very likely for the September 30 meeting following policymakers recent 'hawkish' comments.

FI/FX MARKETS


  • USDCZK ticks lower this morning and is trading back within its tight range between its 100DMA (21.38) and 200DMA (21.50). Next support to watch below 21.38 stands at 21.20, and next resistance to watch above 21.51 stands at 21.60 (50DMA).
  • EURCZK ticks lower this morning, and is currently trading slightly above its key support at 25.25; a break below that level would open the door for a move down to 25. On the topside, resistance to watch stands at 25.50 (100DMA).
  • Czech 10Y yield has been consolidating higher in the past week, approaching its key resistance at 2%; next level to watch above that stands at 2.20%. On the downside, first support stands at 1.80%, followed by 1.76% (50DMA).
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