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Bears Remain In Control, Q2 GDP On Tap Today

AUD

AUD/USD is eyeing a test sub 0.6700 (currently 0.6735/40). We got to fresh lows back to mid July overnight. Note 0.6719 is the July 15 low, while 0.6682 is the low from the 14th and a bear trigger. The bearish theme for the AUD remains intact amidst continued USD strength.

  • Support for the A$ following the RBA's 50bps hike yesterday quickly gave way late yesterday. The DXY touched a fresh cyclical high above 110.50, before settling back to 110.20/25 into the close.
  • USD outperformance was buoyed by yields (2yr to 3.50%), as the services ISM print exceeded expectations, while US equities fell and the VIX nudged up towards 27%.
  • AUD/JPY touched 96.50 though (last 96.15/20), as USD/JPY pressed to fresh cyclical highs.
  • The A$ has only outperformed JPY and NZD in the G10 space over the past 24 hours.
  • Commodities were mostly on the backfoot, with oil lower partly due to demand concerns emanating from China. Base metals rose though (+1.35%, versus -1.37% for the aggregate index). Iron ore remained range bound between $96-$98/tonne.
  • Coming up today is Q2 GDP for Australia (0.9% q/q expected, along with 3.4% y/y). The partials paint a positive backdrop (see this link for more details).
  • The RBA's Ellis Connolly, Head of the Payments Department, is on panel session today, but monetary policy is unlikely to feature.
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