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A Little Under 50bp Of '24 BoE Cuts Priced, Macro Set To Dominate Today

STIR

SONIA futures are flat to -2.5, biased lower with broader core global FI markets below levels seen during yesterday’s SONIA settlement window.

  • Headline UK monthly and Q2 GDP data matched expectations. The data shouldn’t move the needle for the BoE.
  • BoE-dated OIS shows ~8.5bp of cuts for next month’s MPC and ~47bp of cuts through year end, little changed vs. levels seen late yesterday.
  • The domestic calendar is limited for the remainder of the day, while broader macro focus will fall on U.S. retail sales and weekly jobless claims data.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-244.866-8.4
Nov-244.643-30.7
Dec-244.478-47.2
Feb-254.273-67.7
Mar-254.123-82.7
May-253.950-100.0
Jun-253.854-109.6
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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