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A More Stable Start, But Vol Remains Supported

FOREX
  • Following acute volatility this week across EUR, GBP and USD rates, markets are far more stable early Friday, with the USD Index remaining in a holding pattern below this week's multi-month highs. Nonetheless, front-end implied vols remain supported, with the EUR/USD 1m contract holding back above 5 points having touched new post-pandemic lows of 4.4 points last week.
  • NOK and JPY are the sole outperformers early Friday, but recoveries are shallow, with markets largely consolidating following the outsized moves in the first half of the week.
  • Equity markets across Europe are following the negative Wall Street close, with the EuroStoxx50 and FTSE-100 leading with losses of 0.9% or so. US futures are following suit and indicate another negative open Friday, possibly providing an underlying bidtone to the JPY.
  • Market focus turns to Canadian GDP data, US personal income/spending metrics for August and the ISM Manufacturing release. Central bank speakers include Harker and Mester of the Fed and ECB's Schnabel.
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