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A$ Outperforms Ahead Of Very “Finely Balanced” RBA Decision


Aussie was one of the better G10 performers on Monday with only NZD and NOK rising more versus the greenback. AUDUSD had been trending higher before the disappointing US ISM and sustained most of those gains to be up 0.1% and is currently around 0.6670. The USD index recovered from its post-data dip and finished 0.1% higher.

  • AUDUSD approached 0.6700 but reached an intraday high of 0.6692, just below the 50-day EMA. The low was at 0.6637. The outlook remains soft and a continuation lower would open 0.6562. Initial support and bear trigger is at 0.6596, June 29 low. Key resistance is 0.6900, the June 16 high, with initial resistance at 0.6721, June 27 high.
  • AUDJPY is 0.4% higher at 96.49, close to the intraday high of 96.62. Aussie is down 0.3% versus kiwi at 1.0843. AUDEUR is flat to 0.6112 and AUDGBP +0.1% to 0.5256.
  • Equity markets were little changed with the S&P up 0.1%, Eurostoxx flat and FTSE down 0.1%. VIX is down to 13.6%. Oil prices fell with WTI down 0.7% to $70.14/bbl. Copper is up 0.9% and iron ore is higher at just under $111/t.
  • Today the RBA meets and expectations are split between no change in rates and another 25bp hike (see MNI: RBA Preview - July 2023). Governor Lowe won’t speak until July 12. There is no data.

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