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A$ Steady, Trade Surplus Lower As Resource Exports Fall

AUD

AUD/USD has tracked recent ranges in the first part of Thursday dealing. The currency was last near 0.6380, little changed from Wednesday NY closing levels. We are above session lows (0.6372), while earlier highs were at 0.6385.

  • Broader USD sentiment was firmer earlier, but the BBDXY is off session highs last near 1255.75 (we got to 1256.80 earlier).
  • Equity sentiment is modestly negative, with US futures ticking lower. AU-US yield spreads are a touch above recent lows today, last -114bps for the 2yr tenor.
  • A little while ago, July trade data printed. Exports fell -2% m/m, while the June fall was revised to -3%(initially reported as a -2% dip). Imports firmed +3% m/m (prior -3%). This left the trade surplus lower than expected, near A$8bn, consensus was at A$10bn (prior revised down slightly to A$10.27bn).
  • Exports of commodities were weaker in value terms, particularly for coal, which weighed on export growth. Exports are now 20% off their mid 2022 highs.
  • Still to come is RBA Lowe's speech.
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