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A Temporary Pullback For Gold?

COMMODITIES
  • Despite the positive surprise in inflation in both developed and emerging market economies and the constant flattening in yield curves, gold prices have been consolidating lower since the beginning of June.
  • On one hand, the fall in real yields combined with the rising uncertainty over the Delta variant should have supported the precious metal in recent weeks.
  • On the other hand, an increasing amount of investors seem to be convinced that the market will first experience a period of disinflation before inflationary pressures start to kick off again.
  • In addition, the increase in monetary policy divergence between Western and Asian economies in the near to medium term (amid falling in growth expectations in Asia/SE Asia due to rising Covid cases) could lead to more USD appreciation and therefore continue to weigh on precious metals.
  • Gold has been under pressure in recent days likely caused by a 'wave of liquidations' that wiped out large leveraged trading positions.
  • XAUUSD broke below its LT upward trending support line yesterday; next key level to watch on the downside stands at 1,690, which corresponds to the 61.8% Fibo retracement of the 1,451.60 – 2,075.50.

Source: Bloomberg/MNI

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