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A Trump Win Could Impact Gas Market with More Tariffs: Montel

NATGAS

A Donald Trump win in the US presidential election in November could trigger global gas market turmoil from a fresh trade war with China over tariffs, according to Montel sources.

  • Trump has suggested the idea of imposing a 60% tax on all Chinese imports, which would likely prompt a response, such as a previous 25% import tariff on US LNG by China.
  • “A small tariff would be swallowed but a bigger tariff can alter shipping routes.” said Ira Joseph at Columbia University’s Centre of Global Energy Policy.
  • Some analysts believed policies that significantly affected energy markets are unlikely with Trump relatively supportive of fossil fuels.
  • “Trump favours US oil and gas exports” but the “biggest risk” could be that he imposed an LNG export tariff on US supply to Europe, said Henning Gloystein at Eurasia.
  • Both candidates are expected to end a pause on the approval of new LNG projects but only the cleanest and most sustainable projects would be approved, Gloystein said.
  • Trump might ease some sanctions on Russia to try to end the war in Ukraine, which could impact energy markets but “the EU would unlikely fall in line initially” Gloystein added.
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