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ABF Trading Update: Reasonable For Discount Retailers And Tate

CONSUMER STAPLES SECTOR

ABF, the owner of Primark amongst other things, (ABF LN) issued 1Q24 trading statement this morning which reads reasonably well, especially in outlook terms.


  • Group sales +5.4% (for 16W to 6-Jan-24), consensus is for c.5% growth across FY24 (to 30-Sep-24) with sugar, retail (Primary) and grocery driving. Agriculture was a laggard but <10% of sales.
  • ABF is not a meaningful credit name but Primark is a good barometer for UK consumer and clothing markets, especially at the mid-lower socio-economic groups. It saw LFL sales +2.1% noting a slow start to the period was driven by unseasonably warm weather. This implies a better finish to the period – a good lateral for issuers such as B&M (BME LN Equity), Asda (ASSD LN) and the discount supermarkets.
  • On outlook, mgmt sees improving profitability driven by better margins at Primark as well as British Sugar, positive for Tate & Lyle (TATE LN), though mgmt does acknowledge, whilst not yet seeing, that any rising cost of supply due to the Red Sea situation may offset.
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