ABN Preview: Steady As She Goes

ABN-Amro (ABNANV: Baa1/BBB/A) results are due 15-May. Results last time contained few fireworks but the equity buyback helped price reaction on the day. Spreads have broadly tracked peers so this appears likely to be a “steady as she goes” type of announcement.

• Results last time (14-Feb) beat consensus but were a low-quality beat and included lowered capital and return targets. An equity buyback placated equity investors on the day but the equity has underperformed since.
• ING results (2-May) were a solid lateral with a small (2%) revenue beat and solid credit quality metrics.
• ABN spreads are 40bp tighter YTD (peers: -44bp) and 4bp better over the last month (6bp weaker than peers). The equity is up 22% YTD (SX7P +20%) with the peak of relative performance being reached right after that buyback announcement with the last results. The equity is up c.10% this month, however.
• Earnings estimates are within 1% of where they were at last results as are revenue expectations.

Results are due at 0600 (London time) with conf call at 0800 at: https://channel.royalcast.com/abnamroinvestors/#!/abnamroinvestors/20240415_1