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Accor 28's +7, Koninkijke +4-6bps; both on supply.

CONSUMER CYCLICALS
  • We see FV on Accor 7y (Snr) at +125 (-40bps from IPT).* Separate to FV view, we think existing Accor 28's trade tight; The 28's at +97 only gives +15bps vs. Booking.com for the 3-notch higher rating & as below, the short-end 26's have closed any discount.
  • Similar story against JDE Peets - the lower vol name now trades at a discount on 28's despite initially trading ~100bps tighter post Accor's uplift into IG.
  • FV is +39bps over the 7.5yr BKNG's at+86/€105 & just inside JDE Peets curve

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