MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY90.3 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.4% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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ACGB Curve Flattens, Tracking US Tsy moves, A$ Finds Some Support

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +3.0) are richer with a flatter curve tracking moves made by US Tsys overnight after US GDP came in well above estimates, equities were mostly lower again overnight with tech stocks again the worst performing.

  • The US curve bull-flattened on Thursday, the 10y yield closed 4.3bps lower, while the 30y yield fell 6bps.
  • Projected rate cut pricing into year end scaled back from this yesterday's highs: Sep'24 cumulative -27.8bp (-31.3bp), Nov'24 cumulative -43.9bp (-48.7bp), Dec'24 -66.2bp (-71.1bp).
  • The AUD/USD has slipped over 2% this week as the yen carry trade unwinds with the AUD/JPY falling 4.60%.
  • The cash ACGB curve has bull-steepened, yields are flat to 3.5bps lower. The AU-US 10-year yield differential little changed +5bps.
  • The swap curve has bull-flattened with yields +/- 2bps
  • The bills strip has flattened, trading flat to +2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 2bps softer across meetings heading into year-end, pricing has firmed into next year with a full cut now priced into the May meeting.
  • Today, the local calendar is empty.
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