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ACGBs Cheaper, Curve Steepens, China Imports Grow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -6.0 & XM -6.5) are cheaper today, erasing moves made on Wednesday, there has been little in the way of local headlines and another empty calendar today. US tsys futures are trading near session lows, while most of today’s focus has been in Japan were there were some hawkish headlines from the BoJ Summary Of Opinions (April policy meeting).

  • Cross-asset moves: US equity futures are slightly lower, there has been little movement in the G10 currency space, while global yields are higher.
  • China trade figures for April saw export growth rise 1.5% y/y, close to expectations (1.3%), but comfortably above the prior month's -7.5% pace. Imports were stronger than forecast though, up 8.4% y/y (4.7% forecast and -1.9% prior), which should give some confidence that domestic demand remains strong
  • US Tsys curve has steepened yields are 1-2bps higher, with the 2Y yield +1bp at 4.847%, 10Y +1.8bps to 4.512%, while tsys futures trade at intraday lows.
  • The ACGB curve has steepened today with yields are 4-58ps higher, the AU-US 10-year yield differential is 3bps higher, now -15bps
  • Swap rates are 1-4bp higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly richer with pricing 1-2bps lower
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing mixed into year-end, the market is pricing just 3bps of easing to a terminal rate of 4.32%
  • Looking ahead: NAB business surveys on Monday

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