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ACGBs Richer, Curve Flatter, Employment Data Mixed

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (XM +13.0 (+4.00 post Emply) YM +13.5 (+4.00 post Emply)) are richer today, with the curve slightly flatter. Initial yields opened lower, in line with US treasuries after Retail Sales missed estimates with CPI was still hot but broadly as expected, yields then made another move lower after mixed employment data.

  • Cross-asset moves: Equities have followed US markets higher, US equities futures up about 0.15% today. In FX the yen is the top performing G10 currency up 0.63%, while the AUD is the worst performer down 0.10%, while Iron Ore is 1.60% higher.
  • Earlier, Employment change was 38.5k vs 23.7k, with the make up being 44.6k part-time and -6.1k full time roles, the unemployment rate was 4.1% vs 3.9% est while March was revised higher to 3.9% from 3.8%.
  • US Tsys curve has bull-flattened with the 2y10y -1.474 at -40.055, yields are 0.5bp to 2.5bps lower
  • The ACGB is slightly flatter today with the 5-10yr tenors seeing the strongest demand, yields are 12-14bps lower, while the AU-US 10-year yield differential 2bps lower at -13.5bps
  • Swap rates are 6-7bps lower
  • The bills strip is 2-12bps higher, curve steeper.
  • RBA-dated OIS implied rate is 3-11bps lower out past the august meetings and is now pricing 18bps of easing into the year-end to a terminal rate of 4.17%
  • Looking ahead, calendar is empty on Friday, with WBC Consumer Confidence on Tuesday
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