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UK activity data is due at 7:00BST. This will include the first print of Q2 GDP alongside the monthly GDP print for June and its subcomponents (index of services, industrial production, construction, trade).
- The monthly June GDP print will be watched closely. After reaching a high for 2021 of 2.4% M/M in March as the English lockdown began to ease, growth has decelerated to 2.0% in April and 0.8% in May. The Bloomberg survey looks for another 0.8% M/M print but there are a range of estimates with the majority of analysts looking for a 0.5%-1.1% print. Recall that June was before the peak of the latest wave of Covid-19 cases (which occurred mid-July) but the Delta variant was starting to take hold with close to 30k cases/day by the end of the month. Manufacturing is likely to have been hit more than services, particularly given supply bottlenecks and a global semiconductor shortage.
- The June GDP print will be the last piece in the puzzle for Q2 GDP. The Bank of England's latest MPR forecasts look for a 5.0%Q/Q print, marginally more optimistic than the 4.8%Q/Q print expected by consensus.
- These data are likely to set the tone of start of the day for the short sterling and gilt markets, but unless we get a large surprise we are unlikely to see much immediate reaction in the currency.