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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessActivity data due at 7:00BST
UK activity data is due at 7:00BST. This will include the first print of Q2 GDP alongside the monthly GDP print for June and its subcomponents (index of services, industrial production, construction, trade).
- The monthly June GDP print will be watched closely. After reaching a high for 2021 of 2.4% M/M in March as the English lockdown began to ease, growth has decelerated to 2.0% in April and 0.8% in May. The Bloomberg survey looks for another 0.8% M/M print but there are a range of estimates with the majority of analysts looking for a 0.5%-1.1% print. Recall that June was before the peak of the latest wave of Covid-19 cases (which occurred mid-July) but the Delta variant was starting to take hold with close to 30k cases/day by the end of the month. Manufacturing is likely to have been hit more than services, particularly given supply bottlenecks and a global semiconductor shortage.
- The June GDP print will be the last piece in the puzzle for Q2 GDP. The Bank of England's latest MPR forecasts look for a 5.0%Q/Q print, marginally more optimistic than the 4.8%Q/Q print expected by consensus.
- These data are likely to set the tone of start of the day for the short sterling and gilt markets, but unless we get a large surprise we are unlikely to see much immediate reaction in the currency.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.