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ADP Employment Beats In December But Shouldn’t Move Payrolls Needle

US DATA
  • ADP employment increased by more than expected in December, at 164k (cons 125k) from a marginally downward revised 101k (initial 103k).
  • Gains were mostly solid across a range of firms except for the second-largest category of 250-499 employees.
  • Analyst consensus for private payrolls in tomorrow’s release stands at 130k, unlikely to altered by this ADP beat after weak correlation between the two -- comparing latest vintages, ADP undershot private payrolls by an average -45k through Sep-Nov having overshot by an average 200k in Jun-Aug owing to a particularly large 369k overshooting in June.
  • ADP’s Nela Richardson: "We're returning to a labor market that's very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring. While wages didn't drive the recent bout of inflation, now that pay growth has retreated, any risk of a wage-price spiral has all but disappeared."

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