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ADP Employment Disappoints In August

US DATA
  • ADP employment disappointed with 99k (cons 145k) in August after a downward revised 111k (initial 122k).
  • "The job market's downward drift brought us to slower-than-normal hiring after two years of outsized growth. The next indicator to watch is wage growth, which is stabilizing after a dramatic post-pandemic slowdown." - ADP Chief Econ
  • Small sized firms with 20-49 employees (-12k) saw a seventh consecutive monthly decline.
  • Correlation with private payrolls has tended to be weak although most recently was more in line, with a 3-month average for ADP at 141k up to July (after today’s downward revision) vs 146k for private payrolls (in the July vintage).

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