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DOLLAR: Ahead of today's US ISM and Fed minutes, CACIB economists expect the
December ISM manufacturing index to edge down to 58 from 58.2, with regional
manufacturing surveys generally supportive of the index staying near its
cyclical high. CACIB add the USD may prove to be more sensitive to the FOMC
meeting from the December meeting. Since there were two dissents to the rate
hike they suspect the minutes will highlight the views Fed Presidents Kashkari
and Evans as well as other doves who believe that below-target inflation
warrants waiting longer before further tightening. Any sign that the inflation
doves' camp is growing could weigh on March tightening expectations (currently
priced in at 65%) and hurt the USD.

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