ANALYSIS: New Italy Electoral Law May Not Ensure Governability

-Higher proportional representation pushes parties to ally

-Centre-right to gain most; Voting system unfit for "tripolar" political outlook

By Silvia Marchetti

     LONDON (MNI) - The new electoral law recently cleared by Italy's parliament

might not guarantee  greater political stability nor the formation of a solid,

lasting government at next year's general elections, politicians on all sides

told Market News.

     The new electoral law, aimed at "harmonising" in time for the upcoming

national vote the different systems currently in place for the Lower House and

the Senate, is the "end-product" of long party negotiations. It offers no

certainty of future governability, nor does it ensure that Italy's political

outlook will be any better than it has been.

     "Our dream was to win the constitutional reform referendum that would have

assured a stable government, topped with the previous electoral law sponsored by

(former premier Matteo) Renzi that envisaged a two-round system. But we lost and

had to come to terms with our defeat", said Democrat Edoardo Fanucci, vice

president of the Lower House budget committee.

     "This new electoral law is not perfect but it is the best compromise we

were able to reach with other parties", he said.

     Several law drafts had been rejected before a deal was finally struck

between the Democrats, Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia, the populist Lega party

and other minor groups.

     Parliament was forced to "restyle" the electoral law this year after

Italy's constitutional court ruled that Renzi's voting system, dubbed Italicum,

had several "unconstitutional" elements that had to be fixed.

     The new electoral law, named Rosatellum, is a hybrid: only 36% of seats

(231 out of 630 at the Lower House) are assigned on a majoritarian basis in

single member districts, while the remainder are assigned through proportional

representation. The new law also lowers to 3% the entry threshold for parties.

     "This voting system is unfit for Italy. The majoritarian rate is too low to

ensure governability and the predominant proportional rate pushes parties to

ally and form wobbly coalitions", argued Roberto D'Alimonte, School of

Government professor at Rome-based LUISS University.

     In his view "we needed a two-round majoritarian system with a bonus for the

winning party and single member districts like in France".

     D'Alimonte believes Berlusconi backed the Rosatellum because its high

degree of proportional representation allows him to "do as he pleases" within a

hypothetically winning coalition, and thus keep a future center-right government

at his own mercy.

     Even if the dialogue between parties and joint definition of programs is

positive, there is no guarantee that once in office winning coalitions will last

long.

     The new law could in fact have a boomerang effect, considering how many

"hybrid" unstable governments came to an abrupt end in recent decades. In 2013

the Democrat-Forza Italia government ended when Berlusconi pulled-out just seven

months after its birth.

     Also, even if the Rosatellum ensures that both branches of parliament will

from now on have the same ruling coalition, there is no guarantee that these

will be stable for an entire 5-year legislature.

     Under the new electoral law, not just small parties would need to team up

but even the ruling Democrats, in order to remain in office, would require, as

they do today, support from other minor groups. The current Democrat-led

government is backed by centrists.

     However, according to Democrat Emanuele Fiano, member of the Lower House

constitutional affairs committee, building alliances is a matter of democracy. 

     "True, this law favours all parties that ally, but such political

fragmentation is occurring all over Europe, from present day Germany to the UK

in the past, alliances are necessary to govern," Fiano said.

     Political analysts believe the electoral law will have one certain effect,

that of favouring the rise of centre-right coalitions to the detriment of the

Democrats who are already losing bits and pieces due to internal clashes.

     Massimiliano Fedriga, spokesman for the Lega at the Senate, said his party

was "open to form an alliance with centre-right groups", namely Berlusconi's

Forza Italia and Fratelli d'Italia, a minor former fascist party.

     According to Democrat Matteo Richetti, spokesman for the Democrats at the

Lower House, the new voting system increases the chances of forming coalitions

but does not ensure greater stability due to Italy's new political outlook.

     "The real anomaly we face is this tri-polar system where there are three

main parties" and this causes a fragmentation and dispersion of votes that are

unlikely to make a solid government pop out of the ballot boxes, Richetti said.

     He stressed that "there exists no electoral law that can guarantee

governability in such a tri-polar context".

     Fedriga shares Richetti's view but noted that "the priority was to clear

the law as soon as possible, otherwise the risk would have been delaying the

next general election."

     In recent years Italy went from being a "bi-polar" political system with

the centre-left Democratic party and centre-right coalitions headed by

Berlusconi, to a "tri-polar" system that features today a third intruder: the

"outsider", anti-establishment 5-Star Movement that voted against the Rosatellum

and has appealed to the head of state Sergio Mattarella to reject it.

     "This electoral law is a fraud. The only certainty it offers is the

guarantee of ungovernability", warned Danilo Toninelli, spokesman for the 5-Star

Movement at the Lower House.

     Voters will be misled into believing that they will actually place a cross

on their favourite candidate but their vote will end up going to the coalition,

and someone else will be elected, he added.

     Toninelli ruled out his party, Italy's second largest, seeking alliances:

"The Democrats, Berlusconi and Lega have approved this monstrous law to oust us,

keep us at bay. But we will fight, happily and alone against the rest of the

world".

--MNI London Bureau; tel: +44 203-586-2223; email: david.robinson@marketnews.com

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