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Analyst Comments On Monetary Policy Following October CPI Release

COLOMBIA
  • *Goldman Sachs: Against a complex backdrop, GS believe that the signal from yesterday’s somewhat low print runs the risk of being diluted by the next readings, ultimately impacting the calibration of the policy stance. Overall, GS continue to view a sustained decline in core inflation (especially core services), receding demand pressures, and lower expectations as pre-conditions for a policy pivot.
  • *JPMorgan: In terms of monetary policy, the inflation downside surprise reinforces JPM’s base case for the Board to start an easing cycle in December, with a 50bp policy rate cut. Despite the very high real ex-ante rate, sitting north of 7%, the still high services and core CPI levels suggest the Board should proceed with caution, what makes a more front-loaded easing cycle pace unlikely.
  • *Scotiabank: The dynamic in tradable goods reflects the FX appreciation fast transmission to final prices in a context of fragile demand; this is something that could be very welcome by BanRep, and it makes Scotiabank maintain hopes of a potential rate cut between 25 bps and 50 bps at the December 19 meeting. However, services inflation remained very sticky, showing that indexation effects matters but also that the demand for services such as touristic plans is still booming.
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