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Analyst Reactions To March CPI Inflation

CHILE
  • Goldman Sachs note that the March CPI and core ex-volatiles readings were lower than the central bank’s forecast in last week’s March IPoM. Under the new CPI basket, annual headline inflation declined to 3.2% y/y from 3.6% y/y in February. Meanwhile, BCCh’s preferred CPI ex-volatiles core inflation measure printed at a higher +0.6% m/m, as core services inflation stayed elevated due to the seasonal reset of education prices. However, on an annual basis, core ex-volatiles inflation still fell by 50bp to 3.7% y/y.
  • Overall, GS still expect BCCh to continue easing, noting that headline and core inflation are now within the BCCh target band, although core services inflation remains notably above target at 5.7% y/y.
  • Meanwhile, Pantheon believe that this was a benign inflation report, highlighting that underlying price pressures are under control. They expect headline inflation to continue declining at the margin ahead, as pressures on the currency ease and economic activity remains relatively modest. With real interest rates still elevated, they expect BCCh to continue cutting interest rates gradually, but cannot rule out potential pauses if the currency comes under renewed pressure and services inflation continues to surprise to the upside.
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