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Analyst Takeaways From A Weak Jobs Report

CANADA DATA
  • BMO: “The BoC will likely view the overall results as pointing to more disinflationary pressure ahead, and will await the next couple of inflation prints, but a June cut is looking a bit more likely now. So, even with an upgrade to GDP, the door is open wide for the Bank to sound more dovish at next week's policy meeting.”
  • CIBC: “While markets had been pushing back expectations for a first BoC interest rate cut following strong GDP data to start the year, today's labour force data should see them pulling those expectations forward again closer in line to our expectation for a first move in June.”
  • Desjardins: “Combined with the recent run of soft CPI prints, these numbers should have the BoC opening the door next week to easing policy around the middle of this year. Our view is still that the central bank will begin a forceful rate cutting cycle this year, which extends into next year, to offset the impacts on the economy from mortgage renewals and slower population growth.”
  • RBC: “Labour markets still haven't collapsed in a way that would force the BoC to react quickly or aggressively with lower interest rates, but a rising unemployment rate and further signs that inflation pressures are broadly consistent with our base-case assumption that the central bank will shift to cuts by mid-year.”
  • TD: “We do not expect this report to have a material impact on the April BoC decision given the inherent volatility in the survey, but the Bank should draw some comfort that hours worked were unchanged in March after the pickup in economic activity over Jan/Feb. Still, we think the Bank will want to see more evidence that stronger Q1 activity is a one-off before its ready to pivot, and that desire for more evidence should result in another cautious tone next week.”
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