MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, December 11

MNI BRIEF: Chinese Rail Passenger Numbers Break Record

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY37.3 Bln via OMO Wednesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Lower At 7.1843 Weds; -1.22% Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Not Even Close To Fiscal Dominance - David

CORRECTED-MNI BRIEF: Brazil Inflation Rises To 4.87% In Nov

MNI: US NOV CPI 0.3%, CORE 0.3%; CPI Y/Y 2.7%, CORE Y/Y 3.3%

MNI: US NOV SUPERCORE CPI (CORE SERVICES EX-HOUSING) 0.342%

MNI: US NOV CPI UNROUNDED M/M 0.313%, CORE 0.308%

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Analysts on Canadian Retail Sales

CANADA
  • BMO: “Despite the mixed details, the headline drop in retail sales was disappointing. Weak sales volumes point to an economy that remained at a standstill in November as consumers continue to adjust to a higher interest rate environment.”
  • CIBC: “After consumer spending stagnated in the third quarter, it looks to have been a positive growth contributor in the fourth quarter. We don't expect the momentum to last, however, as survey evidence shows that consumers are becoming increasingly worried about job prospects and mortgage renewals, which will weigh on spending in early 2024.”
  • Scotia: “Consumers definitely have a pulse. Retail sales put in the strongest quarterly gain since the start of 2023. This counteracts the narrative that consumers are flat on their backs. […] Concern about mortgage resets is exaggerated as long argued. Cash on hand remains high. Wealth effects from equities and years of home equity gains might be assisting. There might also be something to be said about shaking off some of the summertime shocks like wildfires and strikes aplenty.”
  • TD: “We don't read too much into today's negative print in retail sales, which is bookended by a solid October reading and a resilient flash estimate for December. […] We think there is an upside risk to our Q4 spending forecast of 2.0% Q/Q growth (annualized).” The BoC’s CSCE suggests this resilience won’t last though, with TD expecting a first cut in 2Q24.
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