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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
US OUTLOOK/OPINION
- The unemployment rate is seen holding at 3.6% in tomorrow’s July release after the 3.57% of June.
- However, primary dealer analysts show a sizeable skew towards a 3.5% print with no one pencilling in an increase back to May’s 3.65% that marked the first rounded 3.7% since Oct’22.
- Bear in mind though whilst that this skew has in the past proven a useful guide, it was notably incorrect in last month’s June report as it suggested a push higher in contrast to the decline seen.
- For AHE, hawkish analyst skew is less pronounced than for the u/e rate but still sees a handful call for 0.4% M/M and none for 0.2% M/M.
- UBS stand out with 0.45% M/M, derived from the same calendar effect that they attribute to the Jul’22 increase of 0.47% M/M, although note that if this materializes it would simply be reversed with a softer reading for August landing ahead of the September FOMC decision.
- [The table is a repeat from the MNI Payrolls Preview published earlier today but also now includes NatWest].
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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