Another thing to watch today is any change in...>

FED: Another thing to watch today is any change in the SEP inflation forecasts,

particularly to the upside in 2021/22, which could send mixed messages. Current

forecast medians for both PCE and core PCE infl is 2.0% for 2021 and 2022, with

ranges of 1.8-2.3%/1.8-2.2% for those years, respectively. A couple of sell-side

notes have different takes on such a possible change for example:

- Morgan Stanley: "We will be on the lookout for the median forecast for core

inflation to move over 2% as hawks may choose that way to reflect the judgment

that policy is too easy". i.e., hawkish.

- Whereas UBS says: "If 2021/22 inflation forecasts rise above 2%, this may be

seen as a sign that the committee is moving closer to formalizing an average

inflation targeting approach". i.e. dovish.