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Antipodean Decoupling

FOREX

Antipodeans currencies were the big movers at the start to the week, landing at the opposite ends of the G10 scoreboard. The kiwi took flight amid M&A chatter surrounding the planned sale of Tilt Renewables' Australian & NZ sales businesses to Powering Australian Renewables & Mercury NZ, with BBG trader sources flagging demand for NZD/USD from leveraged funds in reaction to the news. AUD went offered against its Antipodean cousin and AUD/NZD tumbled past last Friday's low, despite the recent emergence of a "golden cross" pattern on the intraday chart. RBA Gov Lowe delivered a fairly uninspiring speech, largely sticking to his familiar script.

  • USD/CNH crept higher after the release of China's Feb round of economic activity indicators, but the broader market reaction was relatively limited. Industrial output and retail sales rose faster than forecast, but fixed assets and property investment missed expectations, while the unemployment rate was higher than projected. The implications of the data were obscured by the impact of the LNY holidays & a sizeable base effect.
  • The DXY moved roughly in tandem with U.S. Tsy yields and managed to recoup its initial slide.
  • JPY went offered, which allowed USD/JPY to have a look above Friday's peak, as it topped out just shy of Mar 9 cycle high. The yen's safe haven peer CHF held firm.
  • U.S. Empire M'fing, Swedish CPI, Canadian housing starts & m'fing sales as well as ECB speak from Mario Centeno take focus from here.

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