ANZ: Business Cycle Implies Weakness Is Corrective

ANZ note that "in the near term, euro weakness may run further as January's exceptionally high core inflation print (1.4% y/y, the highest in five years) has helped to push real yields down. The slow rollout of the vaccine program across the European Union is also weighing on sentiment. However, our business cycle analysis implies that euro weakness should prove temporary and that the move is corrective in nature. The slow start to vaccinations will correct as serum production improves. The net effect will be to push a recovery in aggregate demand into late spring and summer rather than Q1. Whilst that delay to the anticipated rebound is frustrating, positive cyclical developments will re-emerge to support the euro as 2021 progresses."