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NEW ZEALAND: ANZ note that "the prelim ANZ Business Outlook data for July saw
further increases across all forward-looking activity indicators. Levels in some
cases are now back within the ranges that prevailed over 2019. But export
intentions remain very subdued... The near-term employment picture improved
markedly. A net 15% of firms expect to cut jobs, versus 35% last month. While a
net 21% of firms report having fewer staff than in the same month a year ago, it
was a net 37% in the June survey. Deflationary pressures remain evident but with
some mixed monthly moves. Expected costs and pricing intentions lifted, but
one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell slightly...New Zealand is in an
enviable position (touch wood), with activity largely back to normal, as
demonstrated by traffic and spending data and many other indicators.... However,
an inconvenient truth remains - there's a very large economic hole where tourism
used to be. And the hardest-hit sectors - accommodation, hospitality, and retail
- punch above their weight when it comes to employment. Uncertainty is extreme
and the global outlook dire. But for now, we're getting on with our economic
lives, and that'll be helping to repair business' balance sheets."