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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
RBA
At the May RBA press conference Governor Bullock said that the central bank looks at a variety of labour market indicators including vacancies, part-time/full-time breakdown, youth unemployment, underutilisation and hours worked. She said in aggregate they were showing a gradual easing in the labour market and the April data are consistent with this view.
- The youth unemployment rate is seen as a leading indicator and it rose 0.1pp in April to 9.7% and is now 2.5pp above the July 2022 trough but the 3-month average is in line with Q4.
Australia unemployment rate 15-24yrs %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- The underemployment rate is 0.4pp higher on a year ago at 6.6% but the 3-month average has been around this rate through 2024. Underutilisation is 0.8pp higher than a year ago at 10.7% but the 3-month average is around 10.4%, where it was in December. While these measures are off their lows, they have not deteriorated over 2024 on average.
Australia underemployment vs unemployment rates %
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS
- There is a growing gap between growth in PT and FT employment with the former up 6.8% y/y compared with 1.1% for the latter. This is also reflected in hours worked at +6% y/y versus -0.8%. Businesses appear to have a more cautious approach to labour demand (see MNI Economy Struggles To Make Enough Jobs For Increased Labour Force).
- Internet vacancies-to-unemployed continued to ease falling 3.5pp to 39.6% in April but still above the long-run average. With labour force growth running at 3.2% y/y and vacancies down around 18% y/y, it is not surprising that SEEK applicants per job is at its highest since Covid-impacted June 2020. Q1 NAB labour shortages fell to its lowest since Q3 2021.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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