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ARGENTINA: Analysts' Year-End Inflation Forecasts Edge Higher

ARGENTINA
  • The latest BCRA analyst survey showed a slight increase in year-end inflation forecasts to 123.6% y/y, from 122.9% last month. At the same time, 2025 inflation forecasts continued to decline, with the year-end estimate dropping to 35.0% y/y, from 38.4% previously. Meanwhile, real GDP is still seen falling by 3.8% this year, followed by a 3.5% rebound next year.
  • September CPI data will be published later this week, with the market expecting the monthly rate of inflation to edge down to 3.6% m/m, from 4.2% in August. This is expected to bring the annual rate of inflation down to around 209% y/y, from 236.7%. JP Morgan says that the moderation in monthly inflation will come mainly on the back of the one-off impact of the PAIS tax reduction and the expected deceleration in regulated prices. They also expect core CPI to have decelerated to 3.7%m/m, after last month’s acceleration to 4.1%. Last month, President Milei said that the government would lift currency controls when the rate of inflation has fallen to zero.
  • Ahead of the CPI data on Thursday, August IP and construction activity figures will also be published tomorrow.
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