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ARGENTINA: Fiscal Position Continues To Improve, Economic Activity Due Next Week

ARGENTINA
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  • The ARS 899.7bn primary surplus recorded in August marked a significant improvement on the ARS 37bn deficit posted this time last year and helped to take the YTD primary surplus to 1.5% of GDP. Analysts note that while real tax revenues fell in August, as the economy remained weak, this was offset by continued control on expenditure, particularly capital expenditure (-75% y/y) and subsidies (-41% y/y).
  • The weakness of activity continues to weigh on imports as well, which fell by 29.8% y/y in August, driven by large declines in capital goods and intermediate goods imports. With exports up by 14.9% y/y, helped by the continued recovery in the agricultural sector from last year’s drought, the 12-month rolling trade surplus rose by another $3bn to $13.5bn.
  • After GDP data this week showed another 1.7% q/q contraction in the economy in Q2, attention turns to July economic activity data next Wednesday, followed by Q2 current account figures on Friday.
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  • The ARS 899.7bn primary surplus recorded in August marked a significant improvement on the ARS 37bn deficit posted this time last year and helped to take the YTD primary surplus to 1.5% of GDP. Analysts note that while real tax revenues fell in August, as the economy remained weak, this was offset by continued control on expenditure, particularly capital expenditure (-75% y/y) and subsidies (-41% y/y).
  • The weakness of activity continues to weigh on imports as well, which fell by 29.8% y/y in August, driven by large declines in capital goods and intermediate goods imports. With exports up by 14.9% y/y, helped by the continued recovery in the agricultural sector from last year’s drought, the 12-month rolling trade surplus rose by another $3bn to $13.5bn.
  • After GDP data this week showed another 1.7% q/q contraction in the economy in Q2, attention turns to July economic activity data next Wednesday, followed by Q2 current account figures on Friday.